Election Prediction using mathematical model

A Yale economist has developed a model to predict the outcome of elections. I am not real impressed with the gentlemen who explained this in the article I linked to. I found his explanation to be kind of boring. But I am interested in learning more about models such as this to see if there is any value in it.

I have to agree with the commentator that the model doesn’t take into account a number of social factors that can easily impact the way the election swings. Not a very profound explanation on my part, but it is what I have to give right now.